Where is your response to this fre?

It could ingulf the entire region and beyond in a bloody, protracted war (remember just Sadaam's war with Iran for a small taste!) that would immeasurably effect the ecomony of the world and us here in the US. ======================================== I have left out the obvious in all of this this, but I will say it now...premature US withdrawal would be "dangerous" and a major source of concern for Israel...From such a withdrawal, anarchy would break out in Iraq and spread across the Shi'ite-Sunni world...Not many of us today will realize and dare to predict that the Shiite-Sunni Civil war in Iraq today bloody as it is, presages a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East. If war breaks out between Sunni/Shia nations, it will surley see Israel having to defend itself from them in the fray.

Letting your imagination run away with you again. There is no reason to believe Iran will attack Iraq. None. And no reason to believe any of Iraq's other neighbors will do anything other than to help stabilize Iraq, so it is not a threat to their own borders. One thing before we leave, Iraq needs to get itself in order politically, with equal representation for the Sunnis. That will cool the civil war.

Some background and what we have to look forward to when U.S. troops leave Iraq: "There is a sense that Shia are under occupation. And the situation is getting worse. There was a plan written by a Wahhabi cleric named Nasir al Omar who wrote about converting Shias to Sunni Islam or else face execution. Unfortunately it's at a social level now as well. The hatred of Shia is so intense that killing of Shia civilians is widely accepted. http://www.altmuslim.com/perm.php?id=1512_0_25_0_C38 ...The Sunnis have no stake in working towards a Shiite dominated Iraq. They have everything to gain from destabilizing an Iraq that is moving in this direction. So the Sunnis are becoming the proverbial fly in the ointment for the Shiites and the Coalition forces and they have started a destabilizing insurgency in Iraq. We may note that while the Iraqi insurgency is fully dominated by Sunnis it is not limited to Iraqi Sunnis. Sunnis from all across the Islamic world have converged in to Iraq to destabilize Iraq. No wonder the Saudis and Iranians want the U.S. out of Iraq. ...the Shiite-Sunni Civil War in Iraq presage a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East Not many of us today will realize and dare to predict that the Shiite-Sunni Civil war in Iraq today bloody as it is, presages a much greater and bloodier regional Shiite-Sunni and Arab-Persian war in the Middle East. This war that will unfold over the next twelve months will be by far the most bloodiest landmark in the history of War. This will be a war that will tear the Islamic world into two irreconcilable halves. A war that will not be a formal or declared one like a conventional war, but will be marked by increasingly bold and destructive terrorists attacks on Shiite targets, first in Iraq and later across the Islamic world. http://www.waronjihad.org/shiites191005.html Before it is over the entire M.E. will be at war, and we will have to return to finish the job we started, and much greater cost, both of million of lives and trillions of dollars. We need to finish what we have started and help Iraq to flourish as a model democracy...of course this is going to take time. Saudi Arabia IS financing the Sunni Insurgency to overthrow the Shia, and Iran IS financing Shia independence in Iraq with hopes of uniting countries to become the biggest financial/military superpower in the M.E. and the Saudis/Sunnis just won't let this happen.

For the above mentined reasons is why we MUST stay the course in Iraq and bring fruition to the world's newest democracy. We leave now, the fragile democracy in Iraq will fall...and war between Shia and Sunni nations will follow. The cost of failure in Iraq will be unfathomable. What the Iraqis need from us in a commitment to success, a commitment to stay...right now they are viewing us as a paper tiger with no teeth...no resolve to stay the course and win...because we are divided at home. The Democrats should be ashamed of themselves. They (Shia/Sunni)all have stakes in what happens in Iraq and will fight to protect their intrests.

Further to the link provided above: How the Shiite-Sunni war will shape up in the next few months About the withdraw of U.S. forces from the region...An interesting outcome of this could be that the coalition forces would gradually withdraw to heavily fortified zones inside Iraq and leave the day-to-day fighting to the Shiite Army and Police. While the Americans dream is a stable and democratic Iraq, the Sunnis have no interest in such a Shiite dominated Iraq, while most Shiites would also not want democracy per se, they would prefer a Shiite theocracy - a prospect which is the worst anathema for the Sunnis. We may see interesting permutations in the next few days, where the Sunni insurgents gradually leave the coalition forces alone, unless they enter the war on the side of the Shiite dominated Iraqi army against the Sunni insurgents. But if the Americans keep to themselves inside their fortified zones, they would be a target of secondary preference to the Sunni insurgents. The first object of their rage is going to be the Iraqi army and the lay Shiites. So we would see schools, hospitals, mosque gatherings on Fridays being targeted in Shiite areas. How the Shiite army and police respond to this and what would be the policy of the [resent and future Shiite dominated government remains an interesting question. The Shiites have displayed remarkable restraint so far, but the only reason for this is that they know that Iraq is their inheritance by sheer force of numbers through which they will ride over the Sunnis. They want to strengthen their grasp over Iraq, till the time that they can act independently of the Coalition forces. Once they cross that critical mass, the Shiites will shed their restraint and go on a merciless offensive against the Sunnis. They have shown evidence of this when the former Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi personally shot some tens of Sunni insurgents lodged in Iraqi prisons. And Sunni clerics have had their bodies drilled into with electric drilling machines by Shiite policemen. These are tips of the iceberg of Shiite hatred for the Sunnis. ...anyone still think we should pack our bags and go home...do we really want this kind of bloodshed on our hands? We need to stay the course in Iraq, and finish the job, and see the Iraqi democracy to fruition.

one more thing: Historic significance of the American liberation of Iraq for the Shiites When the coalition forces toppled Saddam's regime they did not bring an end only to the Baathist dictatorship of three decades, but to Sunni domination of 1400 years. ...I guess not much thought was given about this before we toppled Saddam. Whether we believe the War in Iraq was justified or not is irrelevant now, if we do not finish the job, we will almost certainly have to return to do it?whether it is Republican or Democrat in the White House. The coming war will see all nations invloved, not just M.E. nations...anyone who has a stake and interest...because of the M.E. oil...China/Russia and the SCO...the U.S. and allied nations will be there defending their intrests.

As my post says, the Sunnis must be given an equal share in the government and oil profits. Then they have a stake in the country's success. Without this, it won't matter how long we stay. Also, every poll I have seen shows most Iraqis do not want the country split up, but want a unified central government. This requires a political solution, not endless sweeps by US soldiers through Iraqi neighborhoods.

As my post says, the Sunnis must be given an equal share in the government and oil profits. ================ It goes a lot deeper than oil profits and power sharing my fellow poster... And this is exactly whay we must stay the course...to ensure democracy DOES happen and flourish...the consequences of failure is unfathomable.

And btw, if you think the animosity that Arab States have toward the U.S. now is great, just wait to see what happens when all out war comes to pass in the M.E. and millions of them die because we failed in Iraq ? words fail me he...the potential for negative reciprocity is immense.

typo...words fail me here.

Re: And btw, if you think the animosity that Arab States have toward the U.S. now is great, just wait to see what happens when all out war comes to pass in the M.E. and millions of them die because we failed in Iraq ? words fail me he...the potential for negative reciprocity is immense. ============== I'm not sure why folks use extremes: like, emotional blackmail and logical fallacies to shape discussions. Have some of us lost our critical thinking faculties or optimism? Granted, sometimes sounding warnings are helpful. Nonetheless the point is to evaluate & respond to them in a rational manner, while we can. I believe if we had exercised more of critical thinking, in this last 30 years, rather than confuse on opinions with facts, we wouldn't be so wedded to gloom and doom scenarios. Besides, a lot of good stuff has been happening as well. If millions more die, then the human species needs to work even harder to offset its nihilistic directions. That's a worthy challenge.

If millions more die, then the human species needs to work even harder to offset its nihilistic directions. That's a worthy challenge. i] ============= Agreed Sierra, we should work even harder to finish what we started, and finish the job of bringing fruition to Iraqi democracy...and thereby prevent massive loss of life. To offset the "without meaning" directions you infer, what should be the course of action that we should take in Iraq? I have only pointed out what may transpire in the M.E. when U.S. forces depart, but accusing me of emotional blackmail and logical fallacies is nothing short of a verbose, non-produtive and ineffective statement, and does not further the discusion in a productive manner.

Re: f millions more die, then the human species needs to work even harder to offset its nihilistic directions. That's a worthy challenge. i] ============= Agreed Sierra, we should work even harder to finish what we started, and finish the job of bringing fruition to Iraqi democracy...and thereby prevent massive loss of life. To offset the "without meaning" directions you infer, what should be the course of action that we should take in Iraq? I have only pointed out what may transpire in the M.E. when U.S. forces depart, but accusing me of emotional blackmail and logical fallacies is nothing short of a verbose, non-produtive and ineffective statement, and does not further the discussion in a productive manner. ================== To begin with, I should have said, 'if we are willing to risk millions of more deaths... Second, I stand by my observation, about the last 30 years. Apocalypse Now predictions have been standard fare in how we have gotten others to come around to adopting the prediction. Really it is the dominant strategy in many circles. I don't mean to accuse you since I, myself, have also sounded alarms. But I have come to the conclusion that it is a tactic which veers us in cynical treatments of solutions too. Third, I think that the Iraq Study Group 2008 regional negotiations & 2008 exit recommendation have been and will continue to be influential because the alternatives to those recommendations look as if they even more costly and unpopular. You have to remember, different institutions, pertaining to Iraq, do not necessarily agree to the same prioritizing/sequencing of multiple objectives. Interagency coordinations sounds great, but I don't think people have their heart in centralization of authority. And my gut feeling is that Americans, by in large, aren't as enamoured of empire as Washington might be. Plus, I think Iraqis, and other societies, should be able to conduct themselves with as few control freaks as possible. Control oriented behaviours are the real reason why even democracies suffer. If we don't get that, then we are just that..control freaks probably.

...the Iraq Study Group 2008 regional negotiations & 2008 exit recommendation have been and will continue to be influential because the alternatives to those recommendations look as if they even more costly and unpopular. ================== Take a step back, and look at the overall picture and try and determine what the costs will be by too early a departure from Ir...there is more at stake here than logistics of packing up and going home and internal politics. I have no problem with Iraqi self rule...which should and will happen in time. I have stated my thesis on the matter, I am sure nothing I have posted here is of any significance anyway to what is going to transpire. Just merely a venue to vent. I only hope I am wrong with what I have observed. Time will tell.

Re: ..the Iraq Study Group 2008 regional negotiations & 2008 exit recommendation have been and will continue to be influential because the alternatives to those recommendations look as if they even more costly and unpopular. ================== Take a step back, and look at the overall picture and try and determine what the costs will be by too early a departure from Iraq...there is more at stake here than logistics of packing up and going home and internal politics. I have no problem with Iraqi self rule...which should and will happen in time. I have stated my thesis on the matter, I am sure nothing I have posted here is of any significance anyway to what is going to transpire. Just merely a venue to vent. I only hope I am wrong with what I have observed. Time will tell. -------------- Of course there is more at stake than the logistics of packing up, etc. This can be said about nearly every activity. The costs and benefits, depend on what you, and other interests, have identified as the priorities in Iraq. Don't you think? Earlier, you said something about 'not leaving until we finish the job/task.' What is your understanding of the job there? Some of the costs include 1.3 million Iraqi refugees, over 35, 000 civilian Iraqi casualties, 3,200 US military casualties, etc. They are the result of our having intervened in Iraq. Now as I said, before the intervention, do a detailed cost/benefit analyses along different dimensions. And when you say something like this, people go off all in a huff and comfort each other through back-biting. That is wierd to me. They are not learners in a healthy way. Few like to ground anything in really good evidence and analyses, until after the actions have been taken. Additionally much of that analyses has been so specialized (domain and institution specific) that it is difficult for the analysts to see the long range consequences of their conclusions. But even more fundamentally, I don't think that people like to entertain really rigourous questions either, unless they are confident and optimistic individuals.

The costs and benefits, depend on what you, and other interests, have identified as the priorities in Iraq. What do think the priorities in Iraq should be? ======== Earlier, you said something about 'not leaving until we finish the job/task.' What is your understanding of the job there? Our long term goal should be to bring fruition to the world's newest democracy, and to secure the borders to prevent further incursions from Sunni/Shia insurgents. We leave now, the fragile democracy in Iraq will fall...and war between Shia and Sunni nations will surely follow. What the Iraqis need from us in a commitment to success, a commitment to stay...right now they are viewing us as a paper tiger with no teeth...no resolve to stay the course and win...because we are divided at home. Whether we believe the War in Iraq was justified or not is irrelevant now, if we do not finish the job, we will almost certainly have to return to do it?whether it is Republican or Democrat in the White House?but I have already stated this?so what is your point in asking me this question? ======== ...consequences of their conclusions. This is what I am trying to point here Sierra...there are consequences to the Democrats decisions to cut and run in Iraq. Dire consequences to both us and them. ========

Us and them being the U.S. and Iraq/M.E.

I'm not sure why folks use extremes: like, emotional blackmail and logical fallacies to shape discussions. Have some of us lost our critical thinking faculties or optimism? Granted, sometimes sounding warnings are helpful. Nonetheless the point is to evaluate & respond to them in a rational manner, while we can. I believe if we had exercised more of critical thinking, in this last 30 years, rather than confuse on opinions with facts, we wouldn't be so wedded to gloom and doom scenarios. Besides, a lot of good stuff has been happening as well. If millions more die, then the human species needs to work even harder to offset its nihilistic directions. That's a worthy challenge. ^^^^^^^ Yes it is, is now and will be for generations to come. ============ We can however control ourselves and be the best people we can be thereby raising the odds that the species will survive. ^^^^^^^^ ccrr, it is the nature of the beast - good - bad, good and evil, both inside ourselves since we got kicked out of the garden. In nature, of which we are an intrinsic, inescapable part, animals and plants with the hardiest genes select to carry those on to the next generations. A wounded animal, even the great lion, tries to hide its injuries so it can still pass on its genes one way or another, for the benefit of the species. We do that too, just more subtly and cached. The hardiest among us hopefully will prevail at least to pass on our genes to children of a better world, better able to adapt to a radically-changing world situation, better able to see good and make that happen, and leave evil and self-destruction in the fading footprints of history. Aggressive militarism and terrorism are works of desperate and programmed peoples, congenitally unable to effect and live a better way with at least our own species, much less the natural world from which we all came, in which we all live, and to which we are all going.

ccrr, it is the nature of the beast ======== Who or what is ccrr...cccp?